In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. 1.1. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. 2015). The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The study area encompasses six . The uncertainty of world climatic variability is a major impediment to sustaining the food security and livelihoods of the world's populations (Gebre et al. Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. The magnitude of increasing trend during the belg season was found to be 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% in DB station and a significantly decreasing trend was found to be 0.12 mm/year and 10.00 in GIN station. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). In line with Rashid et al. 2006; Rashid et al. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. The magnitude of the decreasing trend was found to be 0.06 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station, 0.05 mm/year and 8.80% at SD station, 0.11 mm/year and 12.70% at HG station, 0.13 mm/year and 29.00% change at SH station, 0.19 mm/year and 53.00% at DB station, 0.19 mm/year and 35.00% and 0.20 mm/year and 56.40% change at DBS station. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. 2016). What causes climate change? During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. 3. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. Although there is a positive trend in the annual total rainfall, the number of consecutive wet (dry) days decreases (increases). In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. 2013; Pingale et al. By comparison, time series of temperature indices show decreases in the intra-annual extreme temperature range and total number of frost days, as well as increases in warm nights. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? 2005). The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. Data and Methods 3.1. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. 2012). Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. This study assessed the historical (19832005) and future (20262100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. . It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. **10% level of significant. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. 2014). Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. 2015). The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al.
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